Looking to the Future

When we look into our crystal ball, we see several trends for online collaboration technology in general.

1. Self-Service Web Conferencing Commoditization should drive prices down in coming years. Self-service web conferencing is now a proven technology, with many services in existence offering essentially the same core features. There are still proprietary aspects to these services (such as the software plugins used), and they have a long way to mature, but their self-service nature and clear demand for the core features should drive lower prices.
2. Peer-to-Peer Conferencing will drives prices down even further. Although Peer-to-Peer architecture (described in Appendix A) has limitations, it provides for very cost effective small virtual meetings.
3. All types of E-learning tools will become more platform independent, meaning that they should work on a wider variety of computers. Today, many of the services available are targeting business customers. In the past, this tended to mean that uniform technical resources were available across the audience because all employees had been issued standard software. However, online events are now being targeted at a corporations’ customers, who have widely varying equipment at their disposal. Therefore, we can expect better and better support for diverse types of computers (PC and Macintosh) with diverse software (various versions of Internet Explorer, Netscape, Real Audio, etc). This is good news for teachers attempting to employ e-learning tools. If corporations will use them extensively to train customers, than we can expect more tools and services that minimize requirements of the trainees (such as specific browser or plugins, dual phone lines, etc).
4. Hosted solutions will prevail, with few exceptions. Hosted solutions, rather than software to be installed, make sense for these reasons:
   · Ability to provide immediate payoff
   · Hosted providers have backbone internet connections and large-scale telephone bridges, enhancing the performance of meetings among those spread across the internet.
5. E-learning moving away from “point solutions” to integrated suites. Suites include things like registration, record keeping, web conferences / other collaborative environments and content management. Implementing one of these “suites” will be a complex task, requiring consultants who have done it before.
6. “By 2006, simulation will emerge as a critical part of a majority of e-learning courseware.” These applications are [currently] costly to build and deliver and are restricted to LANs and high-cost, high-payback applications such as training for airplane engine mechanics.” (Gartner Group).
7. “Gaming will grow in popularity. Some rudimentary products are in place in simulations that enable a small group to collaborate on solving a leadership or management problem. These gaming concepts will be extended to more-routine training tasks and to Web-centric development and delivery.” (Gartner Group)
8. Creating a human connection on a topic may be more important than the content itself. “Although e-learning provides excellent tools to deliver information and knowledge, its real value lies in creating the human connections that are vital in building wisdom and understanding. A recent study at the University of Waikato in New Zealand indicated that students who used e-learning tools rated the ability to communicate electronically with their peers and teachers as being more valuable than the opportunity to avail themselves of richer content. The human connection can and should be strengthened through e-learning tools and technologies. For example, students who may not be comfortable asking a question may be less hesitant to do so in an e-learning environment.” (Gartner Group)
9. Yahoo enters the business-oriented web conferencing business. Early offering is aimed at “broadcast” events for 1000+ participants, priced at $250,000 and up.