Contact Name
Barbara Dietsch
562-799-5126
bdietsc@WestEd.org

How can we know the future? My grandmother, writing a piece like this in late 1899, could never have imagined what the 20^th century would bring: space stations, e-mail, microwaves, nuclear power. . .or women voters, social security, billion dollar political campaigns, legalized abortion, and birth control pills. Actually, one grandmother, raised in a little town in Poland, could not write at all. The pace of change is enormous and the direction not predictable, at least by me.

However, as a grandmother myself who will not be around long enough to be proven wrong, I will take the liberty of advising teen pregnancy prevention advocates about some relevant issues that may arise in the coming century. As you will note, I am quite pessimistic about our ability to deal with many social problems, yet optimistic about the survival of the human spirit and the caring community.

First of all, I see the American public increasingly split by ethnic and religious confrontations. As the country becomes more Latino and Asian, tensions will rise as ethnic groups compete for resources and attention. And more communities will be called upon to shelter whatever refugees future ethnic wars send to our shores. This will take place on top of already unresolved racial issues. The bottom rungs of society are growing more isolated, and the income gap between the largely white haves (in the suburbs) and the non-white have-nots (in inner cities and scattered rural areas) will widen.

Religious tensions will slice the country up in other ways. Creationists are gaining ground. The Ten Commandments already hang in public school rooms. Candidates for office appeal to the electorate by trying to prove that they are the most "born-again".

Along with ethnic and religious hostilities, demographic trends portend growing competition between age groups for social resources. The number of old people is rising and so is the number of children. Thus, the dependency ratio, the size of the labor force in relationship to the aggregate of young and old, is in a squeeze. How will the relatively smaller labor force support all of this?

These confrontations will take place more frequently right at the school house door. Busing is being dispensed with, leaving inner city school systems to cope with vast numbers of segregated and disadvantaged children from the most persecuted racial and ethnic groups. The religious faction will continue to press for vouchers to "rescue" some of these children and send them to parochial schools with public funds. At the same time, resistance to taxation may result in budget cuts for all sorts of social programs including education.

I am not saying all this to depress my younger colleagues. What I hope to do is to use these pessimistic predictions to shape a constructive agenda for social action. If my prognosis is correct about the increasing complexity of the American scene, then what already seemed to be a large task will grow to gigantic proportions.

Those who are interested in preventing teen pregnancy in the future will have a very broad agenda to deal with. I am more convinced than ever that the prevention of the ubiquitous early unprotected sexual intercourse that leads to unintended childbearing extends way beyond reproductive health care issues like sexuality education and access to birth control. It requires a greatly expanded opportunity structure for young people that assures equal access to quality education and strong support systems.

Youth development issues of all kinds must gain greater visibility on the American scene. The country must rally around the call for better schools, more functional families, and safer neighborhoods. We must deal with racism and divisiveness and act on the founding principles of this nation ("all men (sic) are created equal"!). Values are very central to this discussion, but whose values do we want to promote? Although this rhetoric seems tired, we cannot walk away from our responsibilities to building sound equitable communities that will produce responsible children.

All of this requires a certain sleight of hand to address the array of critical social issues but not to lose sight of the importance of pregnancy prevention.

I believe that developing counter-forces to divisiveness, racism, and competition for resources is fundamental to the way that young people will grow up in the 21^st century. I can envision a scenario that pulls together all the caring people into a giant coalition. Our nation is uniquely blessed with millions of individuals who are willing to give of themselves to make a better society. If these people could combine the power of their agencies, institutions, and businesses, they would vastly outnumber the negative forces. This coalition for the Century of the Child could issue a massive demand for the conditions that produce healthy children.

People who are involved in the prevention of teenage pregnancy are exceptionally well-qualified to lead the campaign for the rights of youth in the 21^st century. They are accustomed to controversy, and to fighting for their beliefs. They know how to work in partnerships with schools, social and health agencies, businesses, and the faith-based community. They are well-trained in youth development, understand cultural differences, can communicate with young people and adults, and know how to use the media to influence public opinion. They are strong role-models who can help shape the lives of children. And, youth advocates are clearly not out to make a buck, or they would be working on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley.

So, my prediction for the 21^st century is that the good guys will get together and overcome the negative forces. They will convince the American people that it is to their best interest to use their many resources wisely. As a result of that social and political process, children will be able to grow up safely, learn and flourish, place high value on sharing and community, and want to contribute to a positive society. Children like that will not become parents before they are ready, willing, and able.