After nearly 40 years of steady growth, K–12 public school enrollment in the United States is now in sustained decline. Federal projections indicate that 40 states will experience further losses through 2030–31, and the nation’s public education system could lose $11.5 billion in state revenues annually by that year. The challenge is compounding: Even as enrollment shrinks, the share of students requiring supplemental support is growing, leaving districts to serve a wider range of needs as total funding contracts.

This policy brief, produced by WestEd and Bellwether, outlines three recommendations for state leaders: Align funding policy with changing enrollment and student needs, provide forecasting tools and system redesign support that build local capacity, and engage in strategic communication that strengthens public confidence and political will. States that act with urgency can equip districts to emerge from this transition stronger, more resilient, and better aligned with their communities.