This paper reports on a study that adopted a systematic approach to school-level early warning. The study examined areas where research consistently shows schools commonly experience decline:

  • leadership stability
  • talent management
  • organizational culture
  • financial operations, and
  • instructional programming.

Rather than relying solely on lagging academic indicators, this study’s methodology incorporates leading indicators that signal distress before formal accountability identification occurs.

The findings show that school decline follows predictable patterns that can be accurately identified through administrative data routinely collected by state education agencies. Analyzing over 1,500 schools proves that early warning systems are not only technically possible but can also provide the 12- to 18-month lead time needed for effective early intervention.